They come up with the results that the outcome of the UK's referendum on EU probability data in percentage points (Brexit_Prob) based on decimal odds of. While betting odds have consistently indicated an “In” victory in the referendum, opinion pollsters have so far painted contradictory pictures of how Britons will. EU Referendum Edition: stanleyfish.com: Booker, Mr Christopher, North, Dr Richard: The socialist viewpoints of the French and Germans are at odds with the more.
Betting odds indicate 67 pct chance of In vote in Britain's EU referendum- BetfairNot in the sense of a solution to the British withdrawal from the EU, but in role in the election campaign before the EU referendum on 23 June By the way, with a big British bookmaker last week the odds for a Brexit. While betting odds have consistently indicated an “In” victory in the referendum, opinion pollsters have so far painted contradictory pictures of how Britons will. Bookmakers dramatically reversed the odds on Britain leaving the European Union on Friday as early results from a historic referendum pointed to strong.
Eu Referendum Odds Main Content VideoEU referendum explained: Brexit for non-Brits - Guardian Animations While betting odds have consistently indicated an “In” victory in the referendum, opinion pollsters have so far painted contradictory pictures of how Britons will. to remain in the European Union soared to 78 percent on Monday, up from a range between 60 and 67 percent on Friday, according to Betfair betting odds. The odds of Britain voting to leave the European Union have tumbled following a frenzied period of Referendum betting. Recent patterns have. Not in the sense of a solution to the British withdrawal from the EU, but in role in the election campaign before the EU referendum on 23 June By the way, with a big British bookmaker last week the odds for a Brexit. It can be interpreted as descriptive and subjective as well as prescriptive and objective. For fear of inroads from such smaller parties, candidates of established parties tend to move closer to demands and programmes of smaller parties. This was demonstrated inwhen CETA was Bibi Hexenkugel scuppered because the Belgian region of Wallonia refused to give its consent for ratification. Current William Hill odds are 2/7 for Britain to remain in the EU, and 5/2 to leave. Similar odds are reflected across most of the major bookmakers. Punters have reportedly been placing bets worth. Uk And Eu To Extend The Brexit Transition Period After 1 January View all odds View all odds. No 2/17; Yes 47/ Check out the table to find out how many points you can earn every time you play with us Note: New Rewards Points calculations have minimum odds requirements, which are as follows: Doubles: Both selections must have odds of or above Trebles: All 3 selections must have odds of or above 4-folds: All 4 selections must have odds of or above 5-folds and above: All 5+ selections must have odds of or above. The sheer number of people who have died or become eligible to vote since June has likely swung the odds in favour of remain. every day that passed since the EU Referendum has added 1, The EU, on the other hand, would like to prevent British companies from gaining competitive advantages, especially since the desired trade agreement would allow British goods to enter the EU market free of tariffs and quotas.
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Cricket Tips. Will Britain remain within the EU? Join today. More UK Politics. Join today Log in. More Podcasts UK. Some supporters of the Leave campaign, including the Conservative MP Sir Gerald Howarth , criticised the government's decision to extend the deadline, alleging it gave Remain an advantage because many late registrants were young people who were considered to be more likely to vote for Remain.
Nottingham City Council emailed a Vote Leave supporter to say that the council was unable to check whether the nationality that people stated on their voting registration form was true, and hence that they simply had to assume that the information that was submitted was, indeed, correct.
Kingston upon Thames London Borough Council and the Electoral Commission stated that Jakub Pawlowski, a Polish voter in Kingston upon Thames declared himself as being British on his registration form, and hence, received a referendum polling card in the post, although he is not a UK citizen and did not have the right to receive such a polling card.
The voter stated that he specified that he was a Polish citizen when registering on the electoral roll,  but still had received the card in the post.
Xpress was initially unable to confirm the exact number of those affected. The matter was resolved by the issuance of a software patch which rendered the wrongly recorded electors ineligible to vote on 23 June.
Residents of the Crown Dependencies which are not part of the United Kingdom , namely the Isle of Man and the Bailiwicks of Jersey and Guernsey , even if they were British citizens, were excluded from the referendum unless they were also previous residents of the United Kingdom that is: England and Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland.
Some residents of the Isle of Man protested that they, as full British citizens under the British Nationality Act and living within the British Islands , should also have been given the opportunity to vote in the referendum, as the Isle and the Bailiwicks, although not included as if they were part of the United Kingdom for the purpose of European Union and European Economic Area EEA membership as is the case with Gibraltar , would also have been significantly affected by the outcome and impact of the referendum.
In January , Nigel Farage and the Leave. EU campaign became part of the Grassroots Out movement, which was borne out of infighting between Vote Leave and Leave.
EU campaigners. The UK Government's official position was to support the Remain campaign. Nevertheless, Cameron announced that Conservative Ministers and MPs were free to campaign in favour of remaining in the EU or leaving it, according to their conscience.
This decision came after mounting pressure for a free vote for ministers. In the week beginning on 16 May, the Electoral Commission sent a voting guide regarding the referendum to every household within the UK and Gibraltar to raise awareness of the upcoming referendum.
The eight-page guide contained details on how to vote, as well as a sample of the actual ballot paper, and a whole page each was given to the campaign groups Britain Stronger in Europe and Vote Leave to present their case.
The Vote Leave campaign argued that if the UK left the EU, national sovereignty would be protected, immigration controls could be imposed, and the UK would be able to sign trade deals with the rest of the world.
The UK would also be able to stop membership payments to the EU every week. The Cabinet of the United Kingdom is a body responsible for making decisions on policy and organising governmental departments ; it is chaired by the Prime Minister and contains most of the government's ministerial heads.
Various UK multinationals have stated that they would not like the UK to leave the EU because of the uncertainty it would cause, such as Shell ,  BT  and Vodafone ,  with some assessing the pros and cons of Britain exiting.
Many UK-based businesses, including Sainsbury's , remained steadfastly neutral, concerned that taking sides in the divisive issue could lead to a backlash from customers.
In the week following conclusion of the UK's renegotiation and especially after Boris Johnson announced that he would support the UK leaving , the pound fell to a seven-year low against the dollar and economists at HSBC warned that it could drop even more.
European banking analysts also cited Brexit concerns as the reason for the Euro's decline. Uncertainty over the referendum result, together with several other factors—US interest rates rising, low commodity prices, low Eurozone growth and concerns over emerging markets such as China—contributed to a high level of stock market volatility in January and February However, when the result for Sunderland was announced, it indicated an unexpected swing to 'Leave'.
It recovered to The Associated Press called the sudden worldwide stock market decline a stock market crash. The referendum was generally well-accepted by European far right.
Marine Le Pen , the leader of the French Front national , described the possibility of a Brexit as "like the fall of the Berlin Wall " and commented that "Brexit would be marvellous — extraordinary — for all European peoples who long for freedom".
Dutch politician Geert Wilders , leader of the Party for Freedom , said that the Netherlands should follow Britain's example: "Like in the s, once again Britain could help liberate Europe from another totalitarian monster, this time called 'Brussels'.
Again, we could be saved by the British. Swedish foreign minister Margot Wallström said on 11 June that if Britain left the EU, other countries would have referendums on whether to leave the EU, and that if Britain stayed in the EU, other countries would negotiate, ask and demand to have special treatment.
Christine Lagarde , the managing director of the International Monetary Fund , warned in February that the uncertainty over the outcome of the referendum would be bad "in and of itself" for the British economy.
In October , United States Trade Representative Michael Froman declared that the United States was not keen on pursuing a separate free-trade agreement FTA with Britain if it were to leave the EU, thus, according to The Guardian newspaper, undermining a key economic argument of proponents of those who say Britain would prosper on its own and be able to secure bilateral FTAs with trading partners.
Obama said: "Having the UK in the EU gives us much greater confidence about the strength of the transatlantic union, and is part of the cornerstone of the institutions built after World War II that has made the world safer and more prosperous.
We want to make sure that the United Kingdom continues to have that influence. President Barack Obama of interfering in the Brexit vote,   with Boris Johnson calling the intervention a "piece of outrageous and exorbitant hypocrisy"  and UKIP leader Nigel Farage accusing him of "monstrous interference", saying "You wouldn't expect the British Prime Minister to intervene in your presidential election, you wouldn't expect the Prime Minister to endorse one candidate or another.
Prior to the vote, Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump anticipated that Britain would leave based on its concerns over migration,  while Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton hoped that Britain would remain in the EU to strengthen transatlantic co-operation.
In October , Chinese President Xi Jinping declared his support for Britain remaining in the EU, saying "China hopes to see a prosperous Europe and a united EU, and hopes Britain, as an important member of the EU, can play an even more positive and constructive role in promoting the deepening development of China-EU ties".
Chinese diplomats have stated "off the record" that the People's Republic sees the EU as a counterbalance to American economic power, and that an EU without Britain would mean a stronger United States.
In February , the finance ministers from the G20 major economies warned for the UK to leave the EU would lead to "a shock" in the global economy.
In May , the Australian Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull said that Australia would prefer the UK to remain in the EU, but that it was a matter for the British people, and "whatever judgment they make, the relations between Britain and Australia will be very, very close".
Indonesian president Joko Widodo stated during a European trip that he was not in favour of Brexit. Sri Lankan Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe issued a statement of reasons why he was "very concerned" at the possibility of Brexit.
Russian President Vladimir Putin said: "I want to say it is none of our business, it is the business of the people of the UK.
We are not involved in this process in any way. We don't have any interest in it. In December , the Bank of England published a report about the impact of immigration on wages.
The report concluded that immigration put downward pressure on workers' wages, particularly low-skilled workers: a 10 percent point rise in the proportion of migrants working in low-skilled services drove down the average wages of low-skilled workers by about 2 percent.
From the German viewpoint, the existence of the liberal bloc allows Germany to play-off free-market Britain against dirigiste France, and that if Britain were to leave, the liberal bloc would be severely weakened, thereby allowing the French to take the EU into a much more dirigiste direction that would be unattractive from the standpoint of Berlin.
World Pensions Forum director M. Nicolas J. Firzli has argued that the Brexit debate should be viewed within the broader context of economic analysis of EU law and regulation in relation to English common law , arguing: "Every year, the British Parliament is forced to pass tens of new statutes reflecting the latest EU directives coming from Brussels — a highly undemocratic process known as ' transposition ' Slowly but surely, these new laws dictated by EU commissars are conquering English common law, imposing upon UK businesses and citizens an ever-growing collection of fastidious regulations in every field".
Thiemo Fetzer, professor of Economics from University of Warwick , analyzed the welfare reforms in the UK since and suggests that numerous austerity-induced welfare reforms from onwards have stopped contributing to mitigate income differences through transfer payments.
This could be a key activating factor of anti-EU preferences that lie behind the development of economic grievances and the lack of support in a Remain victory.
Michael Jacobs, the current director of the Commission on Economic Justice at the Institute for Public Policy Research and Mariana Mazzucato, a professor in University College London in Economics of Innovation and Public Value have found that the Brexit campaign had the tendency to blame external forces for domestic economic problems and have argued that the problems within the economy wasn't due to 'unstoppable forces of globalisation' but rather the result of active political and business decisions.
Instead, they claim that orthodox economic theory has guided poor economic policy such as investment and that has been the cause of problems within the British economy.
The head of the IFS, Paul Johnson, said that the UK "could perfectly reasonably decide that we are willing to pay a bit of a price for leaving the EU and regaining some sovereignty and control over immigration and so on.
That there would be some price though, I think is now almost beyond doubt. During a Treasury Committee shortly following the vote, economic experts generally agreed that the leave vote would be detrimental to the UK economy.
Michael Dougan , Professor of European Law and Jean Monnet Chair in EU Law at the University of Liverpool and a constitutional lawyer, described the Leave campaign as "one of the most dishonest political campaigns this country [the UK] has ever seen", for using arguments based on constitutional law that he said were readily demonstrable as false.
In particular, eight out of 10 respondents felt that leaving the EU would have a negative impact on trusts' ability to recruit health and social care staff.
Guidelines by the Charity Commission for England and Wales that forbid political activity for registered charities have limited UK health organizations' commentary on EU poll, according to anonymous sources consulted by the Lancet.
In May , more than historians wrote in a joint letter to The Guardian that Britain could play a bigger role in the world as part of the EU.
They said: "As historians of Britain and of Europe, we believe that Britain has had in the past, and will have in the future, an irreplaceable role to play in Europe.
Following David Cameron's announcement of an EU referendum, British think tank the Institute of Economic Affairs IEA announced in July a competition to find the best plan for a UK exit from the European Union, declaring that a departure is a "real possibility" after the general election.
Analysis of polling suggested that young voters tended to support remaining in the EU, whereas those older tend to support leaving, but there was no gender split in attitudes.
It was later criticised for overestimating the margin of the "Remain" vote,  when it became clear a few hours later that the UK had voted The number of jobs lost or gained by a withdrawal was a dominant issue; the BBC's outline of issues warned that a precise figure was difficult to find.
The Leave campaign argued that a reduction in red tape associated with EU regulations would create more jobs and that small to medium-sized companies who trade domestically would be the biggest beneficiaries.
Those arguing to remain in the EU, claimed that millions of jobs would be lost. The EU's importance as a trading partner and the outcome of its trade status if it left was a disputed issue.
Whereas those wanting to stay cited that most of the UK's trade was made with the EU, those arguing to leave say that its trade was not as important as it used to be.
Scenarios of the economic outlook for the country if it left the EU were generally negative. The United Kingdom also paid more into the EU budget than it received.
Citizens of EU countries, including the United Kingdom, have the right to travel, live and work within other EU countries, as free movement is one of the four founding principles of the EU.
After the announcement had been made as to the outcome of the referendum, Rowena Mason, political correspondent for The Guardian offered the following assessment: "Polling suggests discontent with the scale of migration to the UK has been the biggest factor pushing Britons to vote out, with the contest turning into a referendum on whether people are happy to accept free movement in return for free trade.
The EU had offered David Cameron a so-called "emergency brake" which would have allowed the UK to withhold social benefits to new immigrants for the first four years after they arrived; this brake could have been applied for a period of seven years.
The possibility that the UK's smaller constituent countries could vote to remain within the EU but find themselves withdrawn from the EU led to discussion about the risk to the unity of the United Kingdom.
The UK cannot possibly continue in its present form if England votes to leave and everyone else votes to stay". The scheduled debates and question sessions included a number of question and answer sessions with various campaigners.
The voting areas were grouped into twelve regional counts and there was separate declarations for each of the regional counts. In England, as happened in the AV referendum , the districts were used as the local voting areas and the returns of these then fed into nine English regional counts.
In Scotland the local voting areas were the 32 local councils which then fed their results into the Scottish national count, and in Wales the 22 local councils were their local voting areas before the results were then fed into the Welsh national count.
Northern Ireland, as was the case in the AV referendum, was a single voting and national count area although local totals by Westminster parliamentary constituency areas were announced.
Gibraltar was a single voting area, but as Gibraltar was to be treated and included as if it were a part of South West England, its results was included together with the South West England regional count.
The following table shows the breakdown of the voting areas and regional counts that were used for the referendum. On 16 June , a pro-EU Labour MP, Jo Cox , was shot and killed in Birstall , West Yorkshire the week before the referendum by a man calling himself "death to traitors, freedom for Britain", and a man who intervened was injured.
EU had continued to put out advertising the day after Jo Cox's murder. On polling day itself two polling stations in Kingston upon Thames were flooded by rain and had to be relocated.
Although this was widely dismissed as a conspiracy theory, some Leave campaigners advocated that voters should instead use pens to mark their ballot papers.
On polling day in Winchester an emergency call was made to police about "threatening behaviour" outside the polling station.
After questioning a woman who had been offering to lend her pen to voters, the police decided that no offence was being committed.
The electorate voted to "Leave the European Union", with a majority of 1,, votes 3. Voting figures from local referendum counts and ward-level data using local demographic information collected in the census suggests that Leave votes were strongly correlated with lower qualifications and higher age.
Researchers based at the University of Warwick found that areas with "deprivation in terms of education, income and employment were more likely to vote Leave".
The Leave vote tended to be greater in areas which had lower incomes and high unemployment, a strong tradition of manufacturing employment, and in which the population had fewer qualifications.
The main reason people voted Remain was that "the risks of voting to leave the EU looked too great when it came to things like the economy, jobs and prices".
One analysis suggests that in contrast to the general correlation between age and likelihood of having voted to leave the EU, those who experienced the majority of their formative period between the ages of 15 to 25 during the Second World War are more likely to oppose Brexit than the rest of the over age group, [ failed verification ] for they are more likely to associate the EU with bringing peace.
EU referendum vote by age and education, based on a YouGov survey. EU referendum leave vote versus educational attainment Highest level of qualification for Level 4 qualifications and above by area for England and Wales.
The referendum was criticised for not granting people younger than 18 years of age a vote. Unlike in the Scottish independence referendum , the vote was not extended to and year-old citizens.
Critics argued that these people would live with the consequences of the referendum for longer than those who were able to vote. Some supporters for the inclusion of these young citizens considered this exclusion a violation of democratic principles and a major shortcoming of the referendum.
The foreign ministry of Ireland stated on 24 June that the number of applications from the UK for Irish passports had increased significantly. There were more than a hundred reports of racist abuse and hate crime in the immediate aftermath of the referendum, with many citing the plan to leave the European Union.
In the UK, crimes are recorded as hate crimes based on the perception of the victim. No more Polish vermin". The killing of a Polish national Arkadiusz Jozwik in Harlow, Essex in August  was widely, but falsely,  speculated to be linked to the Leave result.
The petition had actually been initiated by someone favouring an exit from the EU, one William Oliver Healey of the English Democrats on 24 May , when the Remain faction had been leading in the polls, and had received 22 signatures prior to the referendum result being declared.
Healey also claimed that the petition had been "hijacked by the remain campaign". On 27 June , David Cameron 's spokesperson stated that holding another vote on Britain's membership of the European Union was "not remotely on the cards".
There must be no attempts to remain inside the EU Brexit means Brexit. Its response said that the referendum vote "must be respected" and that the government "must now prepare for the process to exit the EU".
On 24 June, the Conservative Party leader and Prime Minister David Cameron announced that he would resign by October because the Leave campaign had been successful in the referendum.
The leadership election was scheduled for 9 September. The new leader would be in place before the autumn conference set to begin on 2 October.
The Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn faced growing criticism from his party, which had supported remaining within the EU, for poor campaigning.
This led to a string of Labour MPs quickly resigning their roles in the party. The vote did not require the party to call a leadership election  but after Angela Eagle and Owen Smith launched leadership challenges to Corbyn, the Labour Party leadership election was triggered.
Corbyn won the contest, with a larger share of the vote than in On 4 July Nigel Farage stood down as the leader of UKIP, stating that his "political ambition has been achieved" following the result of the referendum.
Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon said on 24 June that it was "clear that the people of Scotland see their future as part of the European Union" and that Scotland had "spoken decisively" with a "strong, unequivocal" vote to remain in the European Union.
In reaction to the lack of a unified pro-EU voice following the referendum, the Liberal Democrats and others discussed the launch of a new centre-left political movement.
On the morning of 24 June, the pound sterling fell to its lowest level against the US dollar since The referendum result also had an immediate impact on some other countries.
On 28 June , former governor of Bank of England Mervyn King said that current governor Mark Carney would help to guide Britain through the next few months, adding that the BOE would undoubtedly lower the temperature of the post-referendum uncertainty, and that British citizens should keep calm, wait and see.
On 5 January , Andy Haldane , chief economist and the executive director of monetary analysis and statistics at the Bank of England , admitted that the bank's forecasts predicting an economic downturn should the referendum favour Brexit had proved inaccurate given the subsequent strong market performance.
In August , the Electoral Reform Society published a highly critical report on the referendum and called for a review of how future events are run.
Contrasting it very unfavourably with the 'well-informed grassroots' campaign for Scottish independence , Katie Ghose described it as "dire" with "glaring democratic deficiencies" which left voters bewildered.
Looking ahead, the society called for an official organisation to highlight misleading claims and for Office of Communications Ofcom to define the role that broadcasters were expected to play.
David Dimbleby announced it with the words:. Well, at twenty minutes to five, we can now say the decision taken in by this country to join the Common Market has been reversed by this referendum to leave the EU.
We are absolutely clear now that there is no way that the Remain side can win. It looks as if the gap is going to be something like 52 to 48, so a four-point lead for leaving the EU, and that is the result of this referendum, which has been preceded by weeks and months of argument and dispute and all the rest of it.
The British people have spoken and the answer is: we're out! The remark about was technically incorrect: the UK had joined the Common Market in and the referendum was on whether to remain in it.
On 9 May , Leave. In February , the Electoral Commission announced that it was investigating the spending of Stronger in and Vote Leave, along with smaller parties, as they had not submitted all the necessary invoices, receipts, or details to back up their accounts.
On 4 March , the Information Commissioner's Office also reported that it was 'conducting a wide assessment of the data-protection risks arising from the use of data analytics , including for political purposes' in relation to the Brexit campaign.
It was specified that among the organisations to be investigated was Cambridge Analytica and its relationship with the Leave.
EU campaign. In November , the Electoral Commission said that it was investigating allegations that Arron Banks , an insurance businessman and the largest single financial supporter of Brexit, violated campaign spending laws.
In December , the Electoral Commission announced several fines related to breaches of campaign finance rules during the referendum campaign.
In May , the Electoral Commission fined Leave. The Electoral Commission's director of political finance and regulation and legal counsel said that the "level of fine we have imposed has been constrained by the cap on the commission's fines".
On 14 September , following a High Court of Justice case, the court found that Vote Leave had received incorrect advice from the UK Electoral Commission , but confirmed that the overspending had been illegal.
Vote Leave subsequently said they would not have paid it without the advice. In February , the Digital, Culture, Media and Sport Select Committee's month investigation into disinformation and fake news published its final report,  calling for and inquiry to establish, in relation to the referendum, "what actually happened with regard to foreign influence, disinformation, funding, voter manipulation, and the sharing of data, so that appropriate changes to the law can be made and lessons can be learnt for future elections and referenda".
In the run-up to the Brexit referendum, Russian President Vladimir Putin refrained from taking a public position on Brexit,  but Prime Minister David Cameron suggested that Russia "might be happy" with a positive Brexit vote, while the Remain campaign accused the Kremlin of secretly backing a "Leave" vote in the referendum.
Not only in the UK but all over the world. But Russia has nothing to do with Brexit at all. We're not involved in this process.
The article identified 13, Twitter accounts that posted a total of about 65, messages in the last four weeks of the Brexit referendum campaign, the vast majority campaigning for a "Leave" vote; they were deleted shortly after the referendum.
In November , the Electoral Commission told The Times that it had launched an inquiry to "examine the growing role of social media in election campaigns amid concerns from the intelligence and security agencies that Russia is trying to destabilise the democratic process in Britain".
According to Facebook , Russian-based operatives spent 97 cents to place three adverts on the social network in the run-up to the referendum, which were viewed times.
EU funder Arron Banks had met Russian officials "multiple times" from to and had discussed "a multibillion dollar opportunity to buy Russian goldmines".
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia. Redirected from United Kingdom European Union membership referendum, National vote to advise Parliament on whether the UK should remain a member of, or leave, the European Union.
Remain campaigns. Notice of withdrawal. Negotiation positions EU negotiation mandate Chequers agreement Timeline: , , Withdrawal agreement. Parliamentary votes.
Any trading by hedge funds, will then start to sway the markets and betting odds, so even if the don't publish their expectations, you can start to see which way their polls were predicting.
This in-line with Nigel Farage indicating towards the start of the evening that he thought Remain had won.
Obviously, these indications can be wrong: the proxies such as 'high turnout', thought to favor remain, evidently didn't play the way people were expecting.
In addition, it's likely that a lot of the evidently 'over-confidence' in the remain side comes from people reacting to each other's confidence: as the betting market rose, and Sterling rose, it gives confidence to the remain side that they had won.
Behavior like that pushes it up further, and encourages more to 'think' it must be remain. Thanks for everyone's answers regarding polls and their accuracy but i now believe the real answer to my question is that they the bookies, forex traders WERE NOT gauging the result at all, they were not gradually becoming more confident of one outcome as they day wore on, they were merely hedging their bets in accordance with where the money had already been placed.
Sign up to join this community. The best answers are voted up and rise to the top. EU referendum odds Ask Question.
Asked 4 years, 5 months ago. Active 4 years, 5 months ago. Viewed times. Exit polls, maybe? Good point, please consider adding this to the question as this may be something not obviously assumed.
This sounds as if the "remain" group is trying to convince the "leave" group to stay home or "vote with the winner" The U. That holds true for those too young to vote that summer, says YouGov research manager Chris Curtis.
He adds: "Increasingly, age is becoming the biggest dividing line in British politics," he says. Age is a major indicator on political party affiliation and opinions on migration, he adds.
While age clearly matters, there are plenty of assumptions underpinning these calculations. To start, no official breakdown of vote demographics was released for the EU referendum held in June , though exit polls suggest age mattered.
An analysis from IpsosMori suggested 75 per cent of those aged 18 to 24 voted to remain, while two-thirds of those over 65 voted to leave. An average of multiple polls by Survation suggested 70 per cent of the younger cohort voted to remain, while 60 per cent of those over 65 wanted to leave.
That carries through to those who were too young to vote at the time, with a YouGov survey commissioned for the People's Vote Campaign suggested that 69 per cent of those too young to vote at the time would choose to remain.
Of course, caveats abound, notably Kellner's assumption that no voters changed their minds between and today.
Plus, we don't know how many younger people would actually turn out to vote, as they're traditionally less likely to cast their ballot.
He stressed that Kellner did not do the calculations for YouGov. Given the gap between leave and remain was 1.UK - Brexit - EU Referendum before ? options: betting statistics. The total amount matched on UK - Brexit - EU Referendum before ? options so far is $, The total number of runners in UK - Brexit - EU Referendum before ? is 2, and you can back or lay 2 of them. Yes is the first option among the active runners, while No is the. 2/28/ · The sheer number of people who have died or become eligible to vote since June has likely swung the odds in favour of remain. every day that passed since the EU Referendum Author: Nicole Kobie. Of polls carried out since the EU referendum wording was decided last September, fewer than a third (55 in all) predicted a leave vote. The actual result on the night came in at % leave, % remain.